Garp Modeling for Prediction of Present and Future Distribution of Background Pear (Crataegus microphylla C. KOCH)
Keywords:Climate Change, Distribution modelling, Rosaceaea, Garp, CMIP6, MIROC-ES2L
Modeling the current and future distribution areas of species using machine learning technique has become one of the important studies in terms of revealing how much the distribution areas of plants will be affected by climate change. By using point data showing the areas where the species exist and the layers created by using the bioclimatic data of these areas, the current and future potential distribution areas of the species can be determined with the GARP program according to different climate scenarios. In the article study carried out in this context, in order to determine how the distribution area of Crataegus microphylla C. Koch from Rosaceae Family will be affected by climate change, based on the 6IPCC report, the potential distribution area of the species for the 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 periods was modeled according to the scenarios of SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, SSP3 7.0 and SSP5 8.5 using MIROC-ES2L, one of the CMIP6 models and the spatial and positional differences between the present and future distribution areas of the species were revealed by the change analysis. In this study, in which the current potential distribution area of this species belonging to the Rosaceae family and how it will be affected by climate change in the future, it is estimated that there will be a decrease in the distribution area of C. microphylla in both periods of the SSP2 4.5 scenario.
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